FXUS66 KSTO 011934
AFDSTO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1234 PM PDT Fri Aug 1 2025
SYNOPSIS...
Chances for afternoon and evening thunderstorms continue through
the weekend primarily across the Coast Range and Shasta County
mountains. Near to slightly below normal temperatures are expected
into the weekend and early next week as periodically breezy
onshore winds continue. A warming and drying trend is then
anticipated from mid week onward with areas of Moderate HeatRisk
returning by late next week.
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Today - Sunday:
- Thunderstorm chances around 10-25% across the Coast Range and
Shasta County mountains in the afternoon/evening. Highest
chances today and Sunday.
- Main storm hazards include lightning, brief heavy rain, gusty
winds, small hail, and possible fire starts. Short term model
trends indicate best thunderstorm chances from 3-8 PM.
- Elevated fire weather conditions are expected in the mountains
due to the lightning and gusty outflow wind threat and any
strikes outside the main precipitation cores will pose the
threat for fire starts.
- Afternoon highs in the 90s throughout the Valley as high
temperatures remain seasonable through the weekend.
- Periodically breezy onshore flow expected during the afternoons
and evenings.
- Probability of south to west wind gusts across the Delta and
adjacent Valley > 30 mph on Sunday: 60-90%
* Next Week:
- Slight cool down on Monday as a quick moving system on Sunday
exits the region.
- Gradual warming and drying trend expected mid to late week as
Desert Southwest ridging amplifies.
- Periodically breezy onshore flow looks to continue as split
flow aloft persists over interior NorCal.
- High temperatures trend slightly above normal by the end of the
week, with 90s to lower triple digits through the Valley,
Delta, and foothills resulting in areas of Moderate HeatRisk.
.Changes from previous forecast...
- Slight chances for isolated mountain thunderstorms across the
Coast Range and Shasta County mountains continues through the
weekend.
- Warming trend expected from midweek onward with Moderate
HeatRisk by late next week.
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